Definition: France (wine consumption in)

Market growth projections - Young people and wine:

Individual consumption fell by 2.8 litres per year between 1965 and 2000. Consumption patterns vary greatly depending on the type of wine. Consumption of quality wines psr (VQPRD) has been rising steadily (although this trend has slowed recently). The decline in consumption of local wines and table wines has been more dramatic. Overall, consumption of all types of wine has been declining since 1960. Total taxed consumption in the 2000/2001 wine year was 32.1 million hectolitres, down 1.9% on the previous wine year and 5.7% on the five-year average. This decline in taxed consumption in France is the result of a stabilisation of quality wines psr at 16.4 million hectolitres and a loss of 800,000 hectolitres in table wines. With 15.7 million hectolitres subject to circulation duties, table wines and local wines lost 4.5% compared to the 1999/2000 season and 12.5% compared to the five-year average.

Diversity of consumption patterns and market shares:

73% of the volume of still wine consumed is accounted for by regular consumers, who represent 24% of the French population over the age of 14 (compared with 28% in 1995). Occasional consumers, whose share rose from 38% in 1995 to 40% in 2000, accounted for 26% of the market in 2000, compared with 20% in 1995. In 2000, the average consumption of regular consumers was estimated at 190 litres per year, or the equivalent of two glasses per meal, while that of occasional consumers was estimated at around 36 litres per year, or around one glass per day. In 2000, as in 1995, more than 75% of the market volume was accounted for by male consumption. As in 1995, the over-50s accounted for 55% of the domestic market for still wines. The under-25s accounted for only 5% of the volume in 2000, compared with 6% in 1995. Heavy consumers, those drinking more than 200 litres per year, accounted for 10% and represented a 50% market share in 2000. In contrast, the 63% of French people who consume less than 40 litres per year represented 8% of the domestic market in 2000, as in 1995.

Market growth projections:

Two main scenarios for consumption trends between 2005 and 2010, according to the INRA/ONIVINS study.

H1 Average individual consumption stabilises at 2000 levels. Market trends would then be driven solely by demographic changes (based on INSEE data, +1.5 million potential consumers over the age of 14 in 2010). This scenario is more optimistic than the market trend between 1965 and 2000 (-2.8 litres per year).

H2 Regular consumption is declining at the same rate as over the long term (-2.8 litres per year), occasional consumption has stabilised at 2000 levels, and half of non-consumers are expected to start drinking wine at an average rate of 5 litres per year. This assumption appears to be consistent with changing lifestyles and in line with alcohol abuse prevention policy.

Year H1 H2 Trend

2000 29,300 29,300 29,300

2005 27,203 26,750 24,200

2010 25,400 24,000 19,800

-13.30% -18.10% -32.40%

Other assumptions:

The assumption of a 22.3% drop in consumption, based on a scenario that combines demographic effects with a drop in consumption of 1 litre/capita/year (-10 litres per consumer in 2010), seems unfavourable but is at the upper end of the trend range.

The most favourable assumption for winegrowers would be for per capita consumption by regular consumers to remain stable, while that of occasional consumers increases by one litre per year: occasional consumers would drink 20% more for men and 30% more for women, representing a total decline of 5.5% in 2010. However, this scenario is completely at odds with the long-term trend and requires a total adaptation to the needs of regular consumers.

Conclusion:

If the younger generations do not change their consumption habits towards more regular wine consumption, the long-term trends are likely to continue and the decline in the domestic market will affect wine categories other than table wines.

Some reasons for this downward trend:

- changes in lifestyles

- consumption patterns that are less and less passed on between generations

- alcohol consumption among young people outside of meals, where wine is rarely present

- supply is not fully adapted to demand and is often too complex for consumers to understand. New consumers must be satisfied.

Young people and wine:

The younger generations have a particularly low impact. 15-25 year olds represent 17% of the population, but consume only 5% of still wine volumes. Meanwhile, the over-65s, who represent 19% of the population, account for 30% of the market. The average individual consumption of 15-24 year olds is around 18 litres per year.

Changes in young people's consumption behaviour over the last 20 years:

In 2000, less than 16% of 15-19 year olds said they were wine consumers, compared to 36% in 1980. Young consumers are now only occasional consumers: 1% of 15-19 year olds were regular consumers in 2000, compared to 9% in 1980. A similar trend can be observed among 20-24 year olds: 70% said they were wine drinkers, 24% of whom were regular drinkers, and in 2000, 43% remained drinkers, 4% of whom were regular drinkers. The population is consuming wine later and later in life; in 2000, at least 70% of wine consumers per generation were aged 35-39 and above. In 1980, however, the 20-24 age group already had a consumption rate of 70%. Consumers remain occasional drinkers for longer and only become regular consumers later and later in life. In 1980, regular consumers were in the majority in the 25-29 age group, in 1990 in the 40-44 age group and in 2000 in the 55-59 age group.

Wine faces strong competition from non-alcoholic beverages:

92% say they prefer other drinks to wine and only 37% say they like the taste of wine. Beverages consumed with meals among 15-24 year olds: over 30% for non-alcoholic soft drinks, over 35% for bottled water and over 40% for tap water. It is in this niche of beverages accompanying meals that wine faces its strongest competition, particularly from non-alcoholic beverages.

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